Throughout this decade, Michigan has had the dubious distinction of being well ahead of the economic curve: our march toward economic calamity has been years ahead of other states – and we’re still ahead of the pack.

The latest jobless numbers have Michigan leading the nation, once again, at 14.1 percent, the highest recorded in our state since it was 14.2 percent in July 1983. Federal numbers released last month found that the number of unemployed Americans climbed to 14.5 million.

But is it going to get even uglier? Probably.

The labor-backed Economic Policy Institute, which tends to do a better job of blending economic numbers with their impact on real people than other think-tanks, reported last month:

“In his Sunday Washington Post story, ‘Recovery’s Missing Ingredient: New Jobs,’ reporter Michael Fletcher spotlights a story told by the nation’s leading labor market experts but overlooked by many news organizations: the worst is still ahead, as it is likely that unemployment will continue to rise for another 12 months.” 

Economic Policy Institute’s president, Lawrence Mishel told the Post:

“I find it unfathomable that people are not horrified about what is going to happen. I regard all this talk about how the recession is maybe going to end, all the talk about deficits and inflation, to be the equivalent of telling Americans, 'You are just going to have to tough it out.' But we're looking at persistent unemployment that is going to be extraordinarily damaging to many communities. There is a ton of pain in the pipeline."

That pain is defined in greater detail in Mishel’s analysis, “Sounding the Alarm,” which offers a step-by-step guide to the current state of the U.S. labor market.

Mishel also points out that, as bad as the national employment rate is, many states are struggling to cope with rates that are much worse. State-by-state data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in late June shows unemployment rates in 14 states have already crossed into double digits.

“We are stuck in what is – or will soon be – the worst economic downturn since the 1930s,” said New York Times columnist Bob Herbert. “Newspapers and the U.S. auto industry are on life support. The employment picture for even the most well-educated Americans – men and women with four-year college degrees or higher – is the worst on record.

“If there is something about this economy to be cheerful about – something real – I wish someone would let me know.”