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AFL-CIO: unionists were 'firewall' for Obama in key swing states

Date Posted: November 14 2008

By Mark Gruenberg
PAI Staff Writer

WASHINGTON (PAI) - Overwhelming support from unionists and their families became the "firewall" of votes that provided victory for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama in key swing states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, top AFL-CIO officials and their polling analyst said.

And the labor federation fully intends to take advantage of that key role to push its top cause next year, the Employee Free Choice Act, federation President John J. Sweeney said.

Speaking at a post-election press conference Nov. 5, after Obama soundly beat Republican John McCain in electoral votes and won a 52%-47% margin in the popular vote, Sweeney political director Karen Ackerman, pollster Guy Molyneux and federation Secretary-Treasurer Richard Trumka all presented evidence of labor's massive get-out-the-vote effort in the presidential contest, and its impact there and in lower-level races.
The total campaign cost for the federation and its member unions topped $250 million.

As a result, not only did Obama defeat McCain, but pro-worker candidates won in key Senate races, while several notably anti-worker House Republicans lost their seats, too. "In state after state, we defeated lousy candidates," Sweeney added. "America's working families and our unions were a steady force powering the engine of change throughout this campaign, knocking on door after door, talking person to person. This year we expanded our battlefield, reaching out to more than 13 million voters in 24 states."

Unionists distributed 76 million literature pieces, knocked on 10 million doors and distributed 27 million worksite fliers. Particularly crucial was face-to-face contact, Ackerman said. That intensified starting in August, after the federation identified 3 million undecided voters - and went to them with its economic pitch.

AFSCME and the Communications Workers alone each sent more than 40,000 volunteers into the field, and the Steel Workers mobilized tens of thousands more. The AFL-CIO effort concentrated on 13 swing states, notably the key state of Ohio. Only one presidential winner in at least the last half-century or more - John F. Kennedy in 1960 - has failed to carry it. Obama won Ohio 52%-47%. 

Ackerman explained that not only did the federation and its member unions commit thousands of workers, out of more than 250,000 volunteers overall, to Ohio, but that Working America, the AFL-CIO affiliate for those who can't join unions, had tens thousands of volunteers and 800,000 members. That's one third of the group's nationwide total.

Neither Ackerman nor Molyneux could estimate the union and union-allied share of the total U.S. electorate on Tuesday, though some exit polls put it at 21%, above unions' 12% share of the workforce.

After the federation's endorsement of Obama, before the Democratic convention, "We began an intensive campaign to re-introduce him to union voters, in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, emphasizing his pro-working-family background," Ackerman explained. "We always said we were the firewall that would prevent a McCain victory."

The effort, which began in July, succeeded. Unionists averaged "25-35 contacts" per voter in the swing states. By the time they ended, Obama's lead over McCain in Ohio had grown by 16 percentage points, to 61%-32%. There was a 22-point increase, to 63%-27% in Pennsylvania, and a 26-point change in Michigan, to 68%-23%.

Molyneux presented graphics from his organization's poll of 1.487 union voters nationwide, including 855 in battleground states such as Missouri, Minnesota, Michigan Pennsylvania and Ohio. The overall picture showed a 67%-30% edge for Obama among all union voters, with 3% going to other candidates.

In the battlegrounds, the Obama-McCain score was 69%-28%. Molyneux also took a separate poll of Working America voters in four battleground states--Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon and Pennsylvania--and they backed Obama 67%-30%. The margins of error were 3.5% in the larger poll and 4% in the battlegrounds.

Those figures included huge margins among unionized white men, thought to be a key vulnerability for Obama. By contrast, all non-union members went for Obama by a 51-47% margin "though that will probably drop" as further data from absentee ballots are counted, Molyneux said.

The Working America figures were especially important, he added, because that group is more white and more conservative than unionists as a whole. One-third of Working America members own guns and one-fourth are members of the National Rifle Association. Yet majorities of those groups in battlegrounds went for Obama.

The big issue - no surprise - was the economy and jobs. Molyneux said 60% of respondents named it as their top issue. That was followed by the war in Iraq (28%) and health care (26%),

Four years ago, when anti-worker GOP President George W. Bush narrowly beat labor-backed Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), the economy (42%) barely edged the war (40%) as the top issue.

Molyneux noted that race was a factor, for one of every eight union voters (13%) polled--but not in the way that had been forecast, since Obama is the first African-American major-party nominee. Only 4% of union voters, at the end, called race their "single most important factor," and another 9% called it one of their key factors. Of the whites in that group, three-fourths (73%-24%) voted for Obama.

"It was impressive that it was that low," Molyneux said. "By the end, among all voters caring about it, they voted for Obama 76%-21%."

"Led by a candidate of uncommon ability to inspire hope, we reclaimed our country from those who are serving corporate interests and the privileged at the expense of everyone else," Sweeney said.