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Slip in April construction 'establishing a bottom' for industry?

Date Posted: June 5 2009

The value of new construction starts fell 1% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $386.6 billion, according to a May 19 report from McGraw-Hill Construction. The drop was due to a slower pace for public works construction, which had been lifted in March by the start of several large pipeline and rail projects.

At the same time, nonresidential building in April picked up the pace after the very weak activity reported during the prior two months, and residential building was helped by improvement for single family housing.

The level of contracting as shown by the McGraw Hill report witnessed a steady retreat from mid-2008 through February, followed by a gain in March and then April's slight setback.

"The pattern of construction starts over the past two months suggests a transition from extended declines to more of an up-and-down pattern, which generally takes place when a bottom gets established," stated Robert A. Murray, vice president of economic affairs for McGraw-Hill Construction. "This process of establishing a bottom is still in its early stages, and will be affected by how different construction sectors perform in coming months. The impact from the stimulus bill on public works construction is just beginning to emerge, with this sector expected to see more strength as 2009 proceeds."

Murray added that single-family housing "remains at a very low volume, but the worst of its correction appears to have passed." For nonresidential building, he said "there's been the occasional display of resilience by such institutional structure types as healthcare facilities and public buildings, but the downward trend for the commercial structure types is still very much underway."

While acknowledging the lower level of construction, Associated General Contractors economist Ken Simonson said last month that "early reports indicate that the infrastructure portion of the stimulus is beginning to do exactly what was intended, put construction workers back on the job."

By geography, total construction during the first four months of 2009 showed the steepest drop in the Northeast, down 55%; followed by the South Atlantic, down 43%; the West, down 37%; the South Central, down 34%; and the Midwest, down 26%.