Demographics will drive long-term work opportunities in the nation's construction economy - a factor which offers mixed news for Michigan and other cold-weather states in the Midwest and Northeast.

That's the word from FMI Corp., a management consulting and investment banking company, which annually offers its exhaustively documented "U.S. markets construction overview."

For 2006 and beyond, the report said construction is expected to increase by a greater percentage in Sunbelt states, which are expected to benefit from the population shift from the Midwest and the Northeast, as well as an infusion of immigrants from Mexico and other warm-weather nations.

"Demographic shifts pertaining to U.S. population are proving to be significant drivers of growth markets," the report said. "While the population growth statistics indicate an increase of 30 percent from 2000 to 2030, approximately 88 percent of the growth will occur in the South and the West… primarily in California, Texas and Florida."

The impact of this population shift, the report said, "will present huge opportunities in the construction industry for residential, commercial, and health care construction, as well as transportation segments and infrastructure investment." The report also pointed out what goes hand-in-hand with demographic shifts: the accompanying tilt in political power to the Sunbelt states.

The pending population shift isn't good news for Michigan and its regional neighbors, but there are some positives in the report. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that between 2002 and 2012, 1.4 million U.S. workers will leave construction jobs for retirement or other work - however, with anticipated growth factored in, the industry will need 2.5 million workers during that period. That's boon to job security for today's younger construction workers.

In addition, the report said there are numerous near-term growth areas for construction all over the country. U.S. power consumption jumped 13 percent in 2005 from the year before, and with that trend growing, there is increasing pressure to build more power plants. One Michigan utility executive told a building trades conference last year that our state needs three power plants to keep up with anticipated demand.

The FMI report said that substantial U.S. gains are anticipated in nonresidential construction, health care, office construction, transportation, and infrastructure. "In almost every sector, demand is strong," the FMI report said.

…It's about people

The annual FMI Corp. U.S. Markets Construction Overview is seen as a major source for examining the nation's construction industry. Coming from a management consulting company, there was a refreshing lack of anti-worker rhetoric in what it suggested in their "labor trends to watch."

Here's a sampling:

"Modest pay increases… and that's a shame."

"How we got here is completely understandable. When workers were plentiful and jobs were not, wage increases were easy to hold down. As the pendulum swung toward an open-shop industry, collective bargaining lost its leverage to push for higher wages.

"Employers are cautious about pay increases in boom times. Nevertheless, in construction, the general theme seems to be, keep wages low so that our prices will be low enough to grow our business even if that means lower productivity because our human resource tank does not contain high-octane talent."

Training will be the watchword.

"Certified training might be an even better watchword. The promise to 'learn a life trade' still holds an appeal to some, but that promise requires significant industry commitment to crafts training, certification and career path development. The demise of organized labor has severely eroded the wherewithal of the U.S. construction industry.

"The investment by most construction industry companies in training is less per capita than the per item spending on equipment maintenance. Given most of the draft choices available to labor-intensive contractors, their failure to provide deep and wide crafts training is a spending choice unwisely made."

Organized labor's role.

"Some would argue that a certified workforce exists in the form of organized labor. However, other issues surrounding organized labor have clouded the real value of union-trained labor. With the demand for skilled labor continuing to grow, one would expect a parallel resurgence in organized labor to follow.

"So far that has proven to be theory not grounded in reality. If construction truly is the hostile workplace envisioned by some, workers should be clamoring for representation of some type to deal with the issues of low pay, high risk and minimal benefits provided by many industry employers.

"This representation may come in the form of something that looks and feels a bit different than the labor unions of old. Some union leaders are emerging as more business focused. They understand that to survive they must change. As progressive leaders become more proactive in the recruiting effort and better target today's labor force, including Hispanics; modify work rules, become more marketing savvy and more of a true partner with the employers, the pendulum is likely to swing."