WASHINGTON, DC – How ‘bout a little good news for a change?

Industry trend watcher McGraw Hill Construction issued its 2010 Construction Outlook on Oct. 16, and predicted that the level of starts in the U.S. building industry would rise 11 percent to $466.2 billion next year.

The hike follows a predicted 25 percent decline for the industry in 2009.

“The U.S. construction market in 2010 will be helped by growth for several sectors, following three straight years of decline that brought total construction activity down 39% from its mid-decade peak,” said Robert A. Murray, vice president of economic affairs for McGraw-Hill Construction, addressing more than 300 construction executives and professionals at the 71^st annual Outlook 2010 Executive Conference in Washington. “The benefits from the stimulus act will broaden in scope, lifting not just highway construction but also environmental public works and several institutional structure types. With continued improvement expected for single-family housing, after reaching bottom earlier this year, the overall level of construction activity should see moderate expansion in 2010.”

For building trades union members, the forecast is tempered by the numbers as they’re broken down by sector. Leading the way out of the industry’s black hole will be the overwhelmingly nonunion residential sector:

Following are highlights of the 2010 Construction Outlook:

• Single family housing for 2010 will advance 32% in dollars, corresponding to a 30% increase in the number of units to 560,000.
• Multi-family housing will improve 16% in dollars and 14% in units, after steep reductions in 2008 and 2009.
• Commercial buildings will drop 4% in dollars, following a steep 43% drop in 2009. The weak employment picture will further depress occupancies, making it even more difficult to justify new construction.
• Institutional buildings will begin to stabilize after losing momentum in 2009. Square footage will retreat another 2% after sliding 23% this year. The dollar amount of construction for this sector will edge up 1%, helped by a growing amount of energy-efficiency upgrades to federal buildings and continued strength for military buildings.
• Manufacturing buildings will drop 14% in dollars and 3% in square feet, hampered by the substantial amount of slack manufacturing capacity.
• Public works construction is expected to rise 14%, given more wide-ranging strength across all project types.

Electric utility construction will slip 3%, continuing to settle back after a record high in 2008.