We have no idea about weather trends for the next 12 months, but the clouds should break up slightly over the U.S. construction industry in 2004, according to the Engineering News Record and others at the North American Construction Forecast Conference.

"After a year of gloomy construction market statistics, economists are cautiously closing their umbrellas in anticipation of a fairly sunny 2004," the ENR said.

The ENR added, "economists are optimistic that the market will strike a balance, as slowly accelerating office and manufacturing construction sectors make up for slowdowns in traditionally dominant housing and public works arenas."

Construction activity is expected to increase by 1 percent in 2003 over 2002, and the ENR/McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge forecast calls for the same one percent increase in 2004, as we reported in our last issue. The chief of the Portland Cement Association, however, predicted that construction growth would be flat through 2005.

Union construction workers may be wondering why the one percent increase in construction didn't translate into more work in 2003. The lack of union trades workers in the residential market hasn't helped.

The ENR said, "homebuilding almost single-handedly fueled overall construction growth this year, but rising interest rates will put the brakes on the industry's main growth engine in 2004." Residential construction is expected to drop 1 percent in 2004, while office buildings (+9.6 percent) hotels/motels (+14.6 percent) and manufacturing (+9.6 percent) are expected to increase