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'Mature' construction expansion still has upside

Date Posted: November 10 2017

The 2018 Dodge Construction Outlook, released Nov. 2, predicts that total U.S. construction starts for 2018 will climb 3 percent to $765 billion. Not a great increase, but it's better than the other direction.

“The U.S. construction industry has moved into a mature stage of expansion,” said Robert Murray, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics. “After rising 11-13 percent per year from 2012 through 2015, total construction starts advanced a more subdued 5 percent in 2016. An important question entering 2017 was whether the construction industry had the potential for further expansion."

Turns out there has been room for the industry to move up, with Dodge estimating that the value of total U.S. construction starts in 2017 are estimated to climb 4 percent to $746 billion vs. 2016.

Dodge said several project types, including multifamily housing and hotels, have pulled back from their 2016 levels, but the current year has seen continued growth by single-family housing, office buildings, and warehouses. In addition, the institutional segment of nonresidential building has been quite strong, led especially by transportation terminal projects in combination with gains for schools and healthcare facilities. 

The need for greater investment in public works and infrastructure is an area in which there's general agreement, at least on some level, although there is no consensus on how to pony up the money. But in Washington D.C., the Trump Administration chose to first tackle health care, and then a tax cut, so the president's professed desire to see a $1 trillion infrastructure program has made zero progress.

The Associated General Contractors noted on Nov. 1 that "the specifics of a $1 trillion infrastructure program by the Trump Administration have yet to materialize, so activity continues to hover around basically the plateau for construction starts reached a couple of years ago."

The AGC said that public spending on construction was down 1.6 percent from September 2016 to September 2017. The group said overall construction spending in September was up 2 percent from a year earlier, and while a good number of individual categories had gains for the year, total spending on manufacturing, water systems, highway and street and commercial construction experienced significant declines for the year. "The ongoing economic expansion is a favorable sign for private residential and nonresidential construction," said Ken Simonson, the association's chief economist. "But lawmakers continue to under-fund public investment."