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‘Remarkable slowdown’ in wage growth imperils economy, study says

Date Posted: September 11 2009

This Labor Day, many American workers will be watching their pennies as much as they watch the annual parades. This year, working people across the board are being hit with an unprecedented array of economic problems, ranging from a lack of jobs to reduced wages for those who have jobs.

The impact of the recession goes far beyond those people who are unemployed or underemployed. A combination of slow wage growth, mandatory unpaid leave and a drop in benefits is going to make it harder for the economy to recover, says a leading economist.

During a conference call with reporters on Sept. 2, Lawrence Mishel, president of the labor-backed Economic Policy Institute (EPI), said the recession is hitting working people hard across the board, including white-collar workers, blue-collar workers, women, men, union members, nonunion workers and both college and high-school educated workers.

EPI has released a briefing paper, “The Recession’s Hidden Costs: Workers Lucky Enough to Keep Their Jobs Still Feel the Pain in Their Paycheck,” which chronicles the widespread pain being spread by the recession.

Mishel points out that private-sector wages grew only by 1.3 percent between December 2008 and June 2009. Meanwhile, production and non-supervisory workers – representing about 80 percent of employees – have seen their annual wage growth slow drastically to 1.4 percent after a relatively steady growth of 4 percent from 2007 to 2008.

This sluggish wage growth could have a serious dampening effect on the economy, Mishel says. “Right now,” he said, “wages are growing slower than the rate of inflation, and we’re going to see real wages falling remarkably in the months ahead.

He added: “It’s really just Economics 101. With high unemployment expected to continue and spending power shrinking for those who are working, businesses don’t have enough customers – and without customers they can’t invest enough to create enough jobs to dig us out of this hole. That leaves government as the only credible player that can make the investments on the scale that’s needed to get jobs, wages, and the economy growing again.”

Authored by EPI’s Mishel and labor market economist Heidi Shierholz (with research assistance from Andrew Green), the report details what the authors describe as a “remarkable slowdown” in hourly wages. It explains how stagnant wages, and new developments in the workplace, such as the rise of unpaid furloughs and the elimination by many employers of 401(k) contributions are expected to put increasing pressure on workers already treading water.

Adding to the misery is the trend by employers to require workers to take furloughs – time off without pay. If you take a week off without pay, Mishel points out, it costs you 2 percent of your income, or takes away 2 percent of your ability to pay bills, buy food and support your family. In fact, furloughs have become so common that average weekly work hours are at the lowest level in the 35 years that records have been kept, he says.

“The fallout from this recession is an equal opportunity disaster for millions of Americans throughout the labor market, and for the economy as a whole,” said Shierholz. “Those who are out of work are facing longer spells of unemployment and rising competition for scarce job openings as employers continue to downsize – and those who have managed to hang onto jobs are seeing their paychecks stagnating or shrinking, along with their housing and retirement nest eggs.” (James Parks, AFL-CIO contributed)

Recessionary news, by the numbers

(From the Economic Policy Institute, as of Aug. 21)

• Total jobs lost during the recession: 6.7 million

• New jobs needed per month to keep up with population growth: 127,000

• Jobs lost in July 2009: 247,000

• Jobs needed to regain pre-recession employment levels: 9.1 million

• Manufacturing jobs lost since the start of the recession: 2.0 million (14.2% of sector’s jobs)

• Construction jobs lost in the recession: 1.4 million (18.3%, nearly one in five construction jobs)

• Mass layoffs (50 or more people by a single employer) in June 2009: 2,763; jobs lost: 279,231

• Unemployment rate: 9.4%

• Number unemployed: 14.5 million (up from 7.5 million in December 2007)

• Underemployment rate: 16.3%; Share of workers un- or under-employed: nearly 1 in 6

• Under- and unemployed, marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers: 25.6 million

• Unemployment rate, ages 16 to 24: 17.8%

• Male unemployment: 10.5%; female unemployment: 8.1%

• White unemployment: 8.6%; black unemployment: 14.5%; Hispanic unemployment: 12.3%

• Unemployment rate, young college graduates: 5.9% (2nd worst on record); Worst recorded unemployment rate for young college graduates: 6.2% (1983)