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Voters' message: time to try a little tenderness towards workers

Date Posted: November 24 2006

By Geoffrey D. Garin

The economy and the state of working America certainly was not the only issue that drove the outcome of the 2006 elections, but economic issues certainly were an important part of the story behind the political earthquake that took place Nov. 7.

Politicians from either party who ignore the voters' message about the need for economic change will do so at their own peril.

In exit polls taken across America on Election Day, respondents were asked about the importance of various issues and considerations in determining their votes. Among those who voted Democratic, three issue stood as the keys, all at a roughly equal level of importance: Iraq, corruption and scandals in Washington and the economy.

Among the total electorate, 39 percent of voters said the economy was an extremely important issue for them in this election. These voters broke solidly for the Democrats - voting for a Democratic candidate in House races by a margin of 59 percent to 39 percent.

Similarly, 41 percent described the issue of corruption and ethics to be extremely important - with these voters also breaking 59 percent to 39 percent for the Democrats. Thirty-five percent of voters said the war in Iraq was extremely important in shaping their vote; this group split 60 percent to 40 percent in favor of the Democrats.

President Bush and many Republicans expected the economy to be a strong issue for the GOP this year. Many of the so-called pundits agreed with them - reasoning that the improvement in the stock market and the relatively low unemployment rate would drive voters to the Republican column. Of course, working Americans who experience the reality of economic life today had a different point of view - and acted upon it in the election.

Polling conducted before the election shows the employment rate is not a good measure of Americans' real confidence in the economy. A significant majority believe (rightly so) that the new jobs we are adding to the economy are not as good as the jobs we have lost, both in terms of pay and benefits. In polling conducted for the AFL-CIO, most Americans say that even if you get a good education and are willing to work hard, it is hard to find a job in today's economy that is both secure and good paying.

The key number from the national exit polling is that only 31 percent of voters feel they and their families are able to get ahead financially in the current economy; the rest report that they are just keeping up or falling behind. The Republicans won handily in the election among the minority who feel they are doing well economically, but they suffered major losses among the majority of voters who don't feel they are benefiting from Bush-onomics.

The economic concerns that played out in this election were not just about the conditions working families face today, but also about real worries regarding what the economic future holds for the next generation. Just one in three voters said they expect life to be better for the next generation, while 40 percent said things for the next generation will be worse than they are today.

Those who worry that the next generation will be worse off voted decisively for change on Election Day - siding with the Democrats over the Republicans by 66 percent to 32 percent.
2006 was a record-setting year for the AFL-CIO in terms of mobilizing members to vote for change, with 74 percent of all members saying they voted for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district.

As with the electorate as whole, the economy was not the only issue for union members, but clearly it was a very major factor. Overwhelmingly, union members want the new Congress to recognize the economic challenges of working families and take action on a working families' agenda-including priorities such as protecting workers' wages and benefits in cases of corporate bankruptcies, requiring Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices, reforming trade agreements to protect workers' rights, raising the minimum wage and expanding health coverage. These economic priorities of union members are shared and supported by voters across the electorate.

Americans were saying something important about the economy when they voted on Tuesday. Their message about the need for real economic change played a critical role in the outcome of the election. The people they elected shouldn't forget it, and the union movement will help lead the way to make sure they remember.

(The author is the president of Peter D. Hart Research Associates, one of the nation's leading survey research firms. Hart Research Associates conducted election night survey among union members for the AFL-CIO).